The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's 1950 paper) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.
By a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.
Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes if, before April 1, 2023, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).
To qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:
- If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level
- In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level.
This question will resolve as Ambiguous if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by April 1, 2023
We define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind.
ETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams