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Alt-protein hit-piece by 2023?

A calibration question in Alt-Protein Tournament.

In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; “What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”. In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to lobbyists and marketing firms to strike back.

Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?

This question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.

Positive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).

The relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.


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