Question

How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?

Resolved:0

12 comments12

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction

1.41

(0.376 - 3.48)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.3758	1.414	3.477
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.3758	—
median	1.414	—
upper 75%	3.477	—

What was the final result?0

Community Baseline Score

137.2

Community Peer Score

61.0

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners juancambeiro

Opened:

Apr 29, 2021

Closes:

Jun 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 18, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 30, 2021

Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%