Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
40
comments
156
forecasters
Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?
95%
chance
Share
Predict
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments
Timeline
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
May 20, 2021
Closes:
Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:
May 22, 2021
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Similar Questions
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
1280 hours
(234 - 5530)
1280 hours
(234 - 5530)
65
forecasters
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
13 Sep 2027
(26 Dec 2025 - Apr 2032)
13 Sep 2027
(26 Dec 2025 - Apr 2032)
89
forecasters
When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?
23 Nov 2026
(08 Nov 2025 - 23 Apr 2028)
23 Nov 2026
(08 Nov 2025 - 23 Apr 2028)
77
forecasters
Show More Questions