Question

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

193

57 comments57

Total Forecasters791

Community Prediction

60%

(40% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

nostradamus

Opened:

Feb 2, 2016

Closed:

Mar 1, 2020

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2016

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2020 Leaderboard

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

85%

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

04 Mar 2029