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"Silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
The Loebner Prize (mentioned in a previous question) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A "chatterbot" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)
The format of the competition is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.
A bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The "silver" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.
A "gold" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.
This question pertains to whether or not the "silver" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.
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