Question
If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?
Total Forecasters92
Community Prediction
Oct 2032
(05 Feb 2028 - Sep 2040)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 05 Feb 2028 | — |
| median | Oct 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | Sep 2040 | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
8%
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
11%
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
4.8%
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
8%
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
11%
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
4.8%