Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters94

Community Prediction

Sep 2031

(18 Dec 2027 - Sep 2039)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	18 Dec 2027	Sep 2031	Sep 2039
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	18 Dec 2027	—
median	Sep 2031	—
upper 75%	Sep 2039	—

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 26, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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4.8%