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    Nuclear Detonation Fatality By 2024

    Created by Metaculus-Partners on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Community prediction hidden {{qctrl.cpHiddenPeriodDurationString()}}, to be revealed on {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}} • The hidden period counts for {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_weight_coverage | percent}} of total coverage • {{qctrl.remainingCoverage() | percent}} coverage remaining
    Published by Metaculus-Partners on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}
    Partnered with Rethink Priorities.
    Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Tournament

    Question

    On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations.

    Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

    This question resolves positively if a non-test nuclear detonation occurs before January 1, 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

    The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.

    Resolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.

    Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.

    Categories:
    Geopolitics – Armed Conflict
    Series – Nuclear Threats
    Tournament -- Nuclear Risk - Round 1

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