Question

What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?

3
11
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction
0.366%
(0.00892% - 0.982%)

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QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%0.008925%—
median0.3665%—
upper 75%0.9818%—
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Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks