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7
119
forecasters
15
7 comments
119 forecasters
Nuclear Risk Tournament
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How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?
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Total Nuclear Weapons >20,000 by 2030
2.5%
chance
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Number of Nuclear Weapons 2075
Current estimate
6774 weapons
3 comments
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Number of Nuclear Weapons in 2050
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10.7k weapons
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53 forecasters
Total Nuclear Disarmament before 2075
1.5%
chance
20 comments
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Nuclear States in 2030
9
50%
10
33%
11
5%
8
1%
3 others
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Global Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles
47 comments
152 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050
Current estimate
1.01 weapons
1 comment
12 forecasters
Global Nuclear Disarmament Date
Current estimate
2201