🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?

Resolved :12.5k12.7k
15
7
Total Forecasters119
Community Prediction12.7k (12.1k - 13.3k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<0
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
0.5%
12.09k
12.67k
13.32k
0.1%

What was the final result?12.5k

Community Baseline Score
149.6
Community Peer Score
15.0
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Arms Control Association
Federation of American Scientists
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Comments

? comments