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27 comments
406 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance
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Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 25, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
USA Today logo
'Clash that could expand.' Why global war no longer feels like remote prospect
USA Today•Oct 17, 2025
Independent logo
Putin’s top ally warns if Trump gives missiles to Ukraine it could lead to ‘nuclear war’
Independent•Oct 15, 2025
Independent logo
Putin’s top ally warns if Trump gives missiles to Ukraine it could lead to ‘nuclear war’
Independent•Oct 14, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Nov 2031
(20 Apr 2028 - Oct 2039)
Nov 2031
(20 Apr 2028 - Oct 2039)
94 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

15% chance
101

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

12.5% chance
121
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