Question

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters385

Community Prediction

8.5%

(5% - 17%)

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50%

community: 8.5%

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 25, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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Daily Mail•Jul 7, 2025

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Newsweek•Jul 7, 2025

World War III will start with simultaneous Xi and Putin invasions taking the globe to the brink of Armageddon, warns NATO chief Mark Rutte

Daily Mail•Jul 6, 2025

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If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Apr 2032

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 25, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Could Putin and Xi really invade Taiwan and Europe at the same time?

Daily Mail•Jul 7, 2025

Vladimir Putin Details How Russia Helped US Achieve Independence

Newsweek•Jul 7, 2025

World War III will start with simultaneous Xi and Putin invasions taking the globe to the brink of Armageddon, warns NATO chief Mark Rutte

Daily Mail•Jul 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Apr 2032

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%