Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No

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Total Forecasters132

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community: 0.1%

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97.1

Community Peer Score

1.7

median 0.1%mean 1.6%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

How Russia, China envision nuking US satellites: from above and below

Defense One•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%