Question
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
Total Forecasters148
Community Prediction
1.15 weapons
(<1 weapons - 6.35 weapons)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1 | 45.8% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | <1 | — |
| median | 1.152 | — |
| upper 75% | 6.35 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50k | 5.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021