Question
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction
0.249%
(0.0632% - 0.831%)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.06317% | — |
| median | 0.2486% | — |
| upper 75% | 0.8306% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?
0.0813
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.0269
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
0.51
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?
0.0813
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.0269
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
0.51