Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

0.178%

(0.0401% - 0.519%)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.04009%	0.1777%	0.5186%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.04009%	—
median	0.1777%	—
upper 75%	0.5186%	—

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 27, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

0.0813

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.456