Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

0.456%

(0.0137% - 0.919%)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.01369%	0.4556%	0.9191%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.01369%	—
median	0.4556%	—
upper 75%	0.9191%	—

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners MichaelA

Opened:

Aug 21, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?

0.169