25 comments
45 forecasters
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?
13%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 13% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Jul 6, 2021
Closes:Nov 8, 2021
Resolved:Jan 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 8, 2021
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Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
35% chance
35
Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?
8% chance
48
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
90 forecasters