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Date new variant overtakes Delta in Virginia

Healthy Communities Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Question

The Delta variant is thought to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness. It became the dominant variant in Virginia in the week ending 26 June 2021 according to the VDH “Infections by Week of Symptom Onset” graph on their “Variants of Concern” page.

There is concern that a new variant that is even more transmissible than Delta or can evade immunity to an even greater extent may overtake it to become the dominant circulating variant. On the other hand, some suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have now reached peak fitness.

As of the most recent 30 July update, the dashboard shows that Delta became the dominant variant in the week ending 26 June 2021, when it made up ~63% of sequenced cases (59/93).

When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?

This resolves on the basis of VDH’s “Infections by Week of Symptom Onset” graph on their “Variants of Concern” page. This dashboard is updated weekly on Fridays. When the dashboard shows that a variant other than Delta makes up >50% of sequenced cases in a week, this will resolve as the last day of that week.

If this does not occur before 31 December, it resolves as "> Dec 31, 2022"

When a variant other than Delta first appears to make up >50% of sequenced cases in a week, this question will close. However, resolution will not occur until 5 weeks after this occurs since late-arriving sequencing data might affect the percent prevalence figure.

If the VDH dashboard ceases to be updated on a weekly basis, the “Tracked lineages over time in Virginia, United States” chart of outbreak.info will be considered for resolution.

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