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15 comments
29 forecasters

What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?

community
51.1
result
39.8
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Metaculus-Partnersjuancambeiro
Opened:Aug 3, 2021
Closes:Oct 1, 2021
Resolved:Oct 3, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 3, 2021
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How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

115k deaths/year
(87.1k - 205k)
115k deaths/year
(87.1k - 205k)
87 forecasters

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

705 cases
(441 - >1000)
705 cases
(441 - >1000)
35 forecasters

How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?

1.94 CRT
(1.07 - 3.04)
1.94 CRT
(1.07 - 3.04)
4 forecasters
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