Question

What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?

Resolved:9.8

2 comments2

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction

8.69

(7.26 - 10.3)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>30
community	7.263	8.693	10.27	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	7.263	—
median	8.693	—
upper 75%	10.27	—
Upper bound
>30	0.1%	—

What was the final result?9.8

Community Baseline Score

68.3

Community Peer Score

3.5

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners juancambeiro

Opened:

Aug 11, 2021

Closes:

Aug 15, 2021

Resolves:

Aug 26, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 12, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 1

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

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43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%