Question

How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?

Resolved:33

7 comments7

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction

28.1

(22.7 - 31.8)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	22.74	28.08	31.78
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	22.74	—
median	28.08	—
upper 75%	31.78	—

What was the final result?33

Community Baseline Score

51.7

Community Peer Score

18.0

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners juancambeiro

Opened:

Aug 11, 2021

Closes:

Aug 15, 2021

Resolves:

Aug 21, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 12, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 1

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%