48 comments
135 forecasters
Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?
10%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 10% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 14, 2021
Closes:Aug 30, 2021
Resolved:Sep 19, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 14, 2021
When will the United States reopen its embassy in Kabul Afghanistan?
13 Sep 2028
(16 Jun 2027 - 04 Sep 2030)
13 Sep 2028
(16 Jun 2027 - 04 Sep 2030)
16 forecasters
How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?
81 forecasters
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
8% chance
124