Question
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
Total Forecasters61
Community Prediction
7.53 weapons
(1.86 weapons - 182 weapons)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 1.856 | — |
| median | 7.534 | — |
| upper 75% | 182.1 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30k | 2.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2021
