Question
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
Total Forecasters64
Community Prediction
15.4 weapons
(2.1 weapons - 434 weapons)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2.103 | — |
| median | 15.36 | — |
| upper 75% | 434.3 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30k | 9.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2021