Question

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

47 comments47

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 77.9%

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

European Union

China

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

45%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

European Union

China

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming five years, poll shows

NBC•Oct 9, 2024

Poll: Most Taiwanese Would Fight Chinese Invasion, but Only Half Expect America to Help

Breitbart•Oct 11, 2024

China starts new round of war games near democratic Taiwan

Al Jazeera•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

45%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

10%