Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Taiwan Receives Support in China Conflict


This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.

Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

This question resolves positively if (i) This question resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.

'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.

Military support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date this question resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the other question resolves.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.