141 forecasters

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Sep 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 27, 2021

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

No, AI isn’t going to kill us all, despite what this new book says

New Scientist•Sep 8, 2025

Nobel prize-winning scientist predicts company profits set to SOAR... but there's a nasty sting in his theory

Daily Mail•Sep 7, 2025

The Doomers Who Insist AI Will Kill Us All

Wired•Sep 5, 2025

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