22 comments
141 forecasters
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 27, 2021
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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
33% chance
41
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
78% chance
34
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5% chance
98