Question
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <15 Oct 2021 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 05 May 2023 | — |
| median | 05 Jun 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 10 Feb 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2099 | 0.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
08 Apr 2027
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Dec 2030
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
31 Mar 2027
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
08 Apr 2027
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Dec 2030
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
31 Mar 2027