5 comments
5 forecasters
When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closes:Mar 14, 2025
Resolved:Oct 27, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
11 Apr 2029
(29 Sep 2026 - Dec 2033)
11 Apr 2029
(29 Sep 2026 - Dec 2033)
174 forecasters
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.31 years
(1.07 - 2.6)
1.31 years
(1.07 - 2.6)
41 forecasters
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
10 Jun 2026
(22 Nov 2025 - 16 Aug 2026)
10 Jun 2026
(22 Nov 2025 - 16 Aug 2026)
28 forecasters