Question

Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?

Resolved :No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction25%

Make a Prediction

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

35.2

Community Peer Score

6.7

median 25.0%mean 22.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

North Korea’s Kim again threatens to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and US

Associated Press•Oct 8, 2024

New Nuclear Threats Made to US From Kim Jong Un

Newsweek•Oct 8, 2024

North Korea's Kim Jong Un wants to speed up becoming a nuclear superpower

NBC•Oct 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%