90 forecasters

Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?