Question

Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

Resolved :No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters153

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.4

Community Peer Score

6.7

median 0.1%mean 0.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Japan Self-Defense Forces

People's Liberation Army

China

Japan

World War II

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

16%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Japan Self-Defense Forces

People's Liberation Army

China

Japan

World War II

China holds military drills around Taiwan to warn against independence

NBC•Oct 14, 2024

China Holds Major Drills Around Taiwan as ‘Warning’ to President Lai

Breitbart•Oct 14, 2024

Is China Making a Move? China Conducts Large-Scale Naval Exercises Near Taiwan, Taipei Defiant

Red State•Oct 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

16%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%