Question
How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?
Resolved:100Total Forecasters75
Community Prediction
111
(68.9 - 171)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 68.94 | — |
| median | 110.6 | — |
| upper 75% | 170.7 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >3000 | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?100
Community Baseline Score
143.5
Community Peer Score
12.4
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2021
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolves:Feb 16, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 10, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2021
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolves:Feb 16, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 10, 2021
