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US-China war by 2035

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Horizons Project


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Beginning with China's entry to the nuclear club in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's naval power in the South China Sea and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a trade war in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China cold war, or military conflict in the South China Sea.

Will there be a US-China war by 2035?

For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year, as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.

We here define battle related deaths as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies.

Resolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.

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