54 comments
530 forecasters
Will Metaculus exist in 2030?
96%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 29, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 29, 2018
When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
Aug 2048
(May 2033 - 2121)
Aug 2048
(May 2033 - 2121)
109 forecasters
Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
7% chance
58
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
85% chance
146