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S&P 500 dividend yield in 2031

Question

The S&P 500 dividend yield is defined as the sum of the most recent full year dividend paid by all companies in the S&P 500 divided by the current S&P 500 share price, both calculated according to the weights of the S&P 500 index at a given moment. It measures how high prices are relative to dividends: low dividend yields mean prices are high compared to dividends, and vice versa.

Dividend yields are often used as a measure of "overvaluation" in the stock market, and they have been trending downwards for the past forty years. This question is about the future of this measure.

What will be the S&P 500 dividend yield in end-of-year 2031?

This question will resolve as the S&P 500 dividend yield in units of percentages reported for the date of December 31 2031 by NASDAQ. If there is no data for December 31 2031 available by the resolution time of the question, the question will resolve as the dividend yield for the latest date in 2031 for which data is available.

If NASDAQ ceases to report S&P 500 dividend yields, the question will be resolved according to another credible source.

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