Question

By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction

78%

(65% - 83%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 78%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-46.1

Community Peer Score

-5.9

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 11, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 16, 2022

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts

Daily Mail•Jun 20, 2025

AI could spark nuclear Armageddon and World War Three, experts fear

Daily Mail•Jun 17, 2025

Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

13%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 11, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 16, 2022

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts

Daily Mail•Jun 20, 2025

AI could spark nuclear Armageddon and World War Three, experts fear

Daily Mail•Jun 17, 2025

Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

13%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%