5 comments
41 forecasters
By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?
78%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 78% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 11, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Oct 27, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 16, 2022
Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?
95% chance
101
Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?
9% chance
130
Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?
5% chance
54