Question

By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

Resolved:No

1 comment1

Total Forecasters79

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

81.3

Community Peer Score

19.9

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 11, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 16, 2022

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

13%

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 11, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 16, 2022

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

13%

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%