Question
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, how many hours will there be between the first and final detonation in the conflict?
Total Forecasters12
Community Prediction
87.1 hours
(11.4 hours - 1519 hours)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1 | 3.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 11.35 | — |
| median | 87.07 | — |
| upper 75% | 1519 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1M | 0.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
