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    Conflict Between PRC & ROC (Taiwan) by 2023

    Created by TomL on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Community prediction hidden {{qctrl.cpHiddenPeriodDurationString()}}, to be revealed on {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}} • The hidden period counts for {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_weight_coverage | percent}} of total coverage • {{qctrl.remainingCoverage() | percent}} coverage remaining
    Published by TomL on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}
    Trustworthy News Global Trends 2022

    Question

    There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured a cover story calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”

    Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

    This question will resolve positively if any of the following occurs between December 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022:

    • There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.

    • There are at least three credible news reports of an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.

    Categories:
    The Economist 2022
    Geopolitics
    Scott Alexander 2022

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