Related Question on Metaculus:
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program. The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the latest assessment from IAEA. Negotiations resumed in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal.
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before January 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2023, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. the question will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Iranian governments, or credible media reports.