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Will AI systems that can generate a synopsis of a viewed video soon exist?
In late 2014 Google announced a deep learning system that could automatically generate a descriptive caption of an arbitrary photograph.
A significantly greater challenge is to provide an understandable and comparably accurate description of the events taking place in a short video (without audio included).
Will a working version of such a system be publicly announced and demonstrated by July 1, 2016? For success, the system should act on a diverse set of short videos similar to these, and should be comparable in accuracy to the accuracy of Google's image captioning when it was first announced.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.