# Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?

The world's best-known cryptocurrency took the world by storm in 2017, peaking at nearly $20,000 in December, 2017. 2018 has been less kind to bitcoin and to cryptocurrencies in general. As of May 22, bitcoin is floating around$8,200. Other "Altcoins" like Ethereum and Ripple have been similarly hammered this year.

In discussing "what's next" for cryptos – and bitcoin, specifically – much of the chatter has pitted bulls versus bears.

For instance, on the bullish side...

• Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts $25,000 for bitcoin in 2018. • Tim Draper argues for a$250,000 bitcoin price by 2022.

• John McAfee, who represents an extreme end of the spectrum, says bitcoin will reach $1M by 2020. The bears, meanwhile, see doom ahead: • Joe Davis of Vanguard thinks that there's a substantial chance bitcoin will fall to zero. • Warren Buffett just called the cryptocurrency "rat poison" and Buffett's friend, Charlie Munger, went even further, saying that cryptos are "just dementia." • Journalist Hamilton Nolan outlines the bear's case with acid humor here. But the purpose of this question is not to choose between the bears and the bulls. It's to choose between the moderates and the extremists. For this question to resolve positive (i.e. the extremists win): • Bitcoin must rocket to the moon--defined as 2X-ing its May 22 price to at least touch$16,400 once by year's end;

• OR bitcoin must plummet to the bottom of the ocean--defined as 1/2-xing its May 22 price to at least touch \$4,100 once by year's end.

### Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

#### Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!