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Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018?

Question

The world's best-known cryptocurrency took the world by storm in 2017, peaking at nearly $20,000 in December, 2017.

2018 has been less kind to bitcoin and to cryptocurrencies in general. As of May 22, bitcoin is floating around $8,200. Other "Altcoins" like Ethereum and Ripple have been similarly hammered this year.

In discussing "what's next" for cryptos – and bitcoin, specifically – much of the chatter has pitted bulls versus bears.

For instance, on the bullish side...

  • Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts $25,000 for bitcoin in 2018.

  • Tim Draper argues for a $250,000 bitcoin price by 2022.

  • John McAfee, who represents an extreme end of the spectrum, says bitcoin will reach $1M by 2020.

The bears, meanwhile, see doom ahead:

  • Joe Davis of Vanguard thinks that there's a substantial chance bitcoin will fall to zero.

  • Warren Buffett just called the cryptocurrency "rat poison" and Buffett's friend, Charlie Munger, went even further, saying that cryptos are "just dementia."

  • Journalist Hamilton Nolan outlines the bear's case with acid humor here.

But the purpose of this question is not to choose between the bears and the bulls. It's to choose between the moderates and the extremists.

For this question to resolve positive (i.e. the extremists win):

  • Bitcoin must rocket to the moon--defined as 2X-ing its May 22 price to at least touch $16,400 once by year's end;

  • OR bitcoin must plummet to the bottom of the ocean--defined as 1/2-xing its May 22 price to at least touch $4,100 once by year's end.

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