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Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?
The MiniBooNE experiment shoots a beam of muon neutrinos toward a giant oil tank. On the way to the tank, some of these muon neutrinos should transform into electron neutrinos at a rate determined by the difference in mass between the two. MiniBooNE then monitors the arrival of electron neutrinos, which produce characteristic flashes of radiation on the rare occasions when they interact with oil molecules. In its 15-year run, MiniBooNE has registered a few hundred more electron neutrinos than expected.
The simplest explanation for this would be an additional "sterile neutrino" - one that interacts only with other neutrinos. This, however, is rather at odds with cosmological data that puts tight limits on the number of light neutrino species present during nucleosynthesis. The mass the neutrinos would have, of order 1 eV, is too light either to be compatible with these constrains or to serve as dark matter (a theoretical motivation for proposing sterile neutrinos.)
It's challenging to work out exactly what experiments are likely to confirm or disconfirm this finding, and when, and how to make a clear question about them. So as a proxy we'll ask:
By May 2019 how many citations will the MiniBooNE paper receive?
Citations will be taken from Google Scholar applied to the published version of the paper (assuming there is one, and the arxiv version otherwise.) In the discussion, we can discuss around how many citations might be expected if confirmation happens, versus not.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.