Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!


This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!


{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
{{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:  
{{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
Created by: casens and
co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}

Make a Prediction


Related Question on Metaculus:

The Doomsday Clock is a regular publication by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which represents the threat of a manmade global catastrophe. It was first published in 1947, saying "it is 7 minutes to midnight". The clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict, but has since included threats such as climate change and "disruptive technologies" such as biological weapons and cyber attacks.

In January 23, 2020, the BAS moved the clock to 100 seconds to midnight, its closest setting ever, and in January 27, 2021 they re-affirmed that setting. The clock has moved 24 times until now, backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times.