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28 forecasters
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?
27%chance
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Opened:Feb 1, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2046
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
15 forecasters
If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?
85% chance
23
If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?
34.7% chance
32