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28 forecasters

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

27%chance
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Authors:
samuelraaschcasens
Opened:Feb 1, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2046
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2022
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15 forecasters

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85% chance
23

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7% chance
32
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