composing definitive insights composing predictive contingencies mapping calibrated contingencies aggregating probable contingencies composing quantitative futures mapping the future crowdsourcing intelligent futures formulating quantitative insights predicting critical contingencies aggregating probable insights generating quantitative estimations mapping predictive contingencies exploring calibrated estimations mapping definitive contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?

There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new "winter," as argued in this article. We shall define an index as follows:

  • +1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 5-year Google trends search on "AI winter" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at < 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.

  • +1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase "AI winter" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.

  • +1 if the fraction of listed YC funded startups that mention "AI" or "machine learning" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.

  • +1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing "artificial intelligence" OR "machine learning" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the corresponding search for 2018. -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)

  • +1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to "machine learning" divided by those limited to "artificial intelligence" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.

Any of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.

What will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.