Question
If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction
587 deaths
(86.1 deaths - 3170 deaths)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1 | 1.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 86.13 | — |
| median | 586.9 | — |
| upper 75% | 3170 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100k | 3.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 12, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2052
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2052
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 14, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Feb 12, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2052
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2052
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 14, 2022